Why xG per 90 Matters More Than You Think for Liverpool’s Transfer Targets

You’ve seen the numbers floating around Twitter. A striker from the Bundesliga has an xG per 90 of 0.65. A winger in Ligue 1 sits at 0.58. The Kop gets excited, the transfer rumours start swirling, and before you know it, someone’s claiming the next Mo Salah has been found. But here’s the thing—xG per 90 is a powerful tool, but only if you know how to read it properly. For Liverpool’s recruitment team, it’s not just about who scores the most expected goals; it’s about context, competition, and whether that player fits the system at Anfield.

Let’s break down what xG per 90 actually tells us, how Liverpool uses it, and why you shouldn’t get carried away by a single stat.

The Basics: What Is xG per 90 and Why Does Liverpool Care?

Expected goals per 90 minutes (xG per 90) measures the quality of chances a player gets or creates over a full match. It’s a rate stat, which means it normalises performance across different playing times. A player who comes off the bench for 20 minutes might have a high xG per 90, but that doesn’t mean he’s better than a starter who plays 90 minutes every week.

For Liverpool, xG per 90 is a scouting shortcut. It helps identify players who consistently get into dangerous positions—something Jürgen Klopp’s system demands from forwards, midfielders, and even full-backs. The Reds don’t just want finishers; they want players who generate high-quality chances for themselves and others.

Think about it this way: when Liverpool scouts look at a target, they’re asking, “Can this player replicate his xG numbers in the Premier League?” The answer depends on the league, the team around him, and whether his style matches Liverpool’s high-pressing, fast-transition game.

How Liverpool’s System Boosts or Hurts xG per 90

Not all xG is created equal. A striker playing for a dominant team in a weaker league will naturally have a higher xG per 90 than one playing in a more competitive environment. Liverpool’s recruitment team knows this, which is why they adjust for context.

Take the Bundesliga, for example. It’s a league known for high-scoring games and defensive transitions. Players like Erling Haaland or Christopher Nkunku posted massive xG numbers there, but when they moved to the Premier League—or stayed in Germany—their numbers adjusted. Liverpool’s system, with its emphasis on pressing and quick attacks, tends to boost xG for forwards. Trent Alexander-Arnold’s crossing, Mohamed Salah’s movement, and the full-backs’ overlapping runs create chances that other clubs can’t replicate.

But here’s the catch: not every player thrives in Liverpool’s system. A target man who relies on crosses might see his xG drop if he can’t adapt to the pace. A winger who cuts inside might struggle if the space is already taken by Salah. That’s why Liverpool doesn’t just look at raw xG per 90; they look at shot maps, passing networks, and how the player moves off the ball.

Comparing xG per 90 Across Positions: Forwards vs. Midfielders vs. Defenders

One of the biggest mistakes in transfer talk is comparing xG per 90 across different positions. A central midfielder with an xG per 90 of 0.15 might be considered a goal-scoring threat, while a striker with the same number would be a disaster. Liverpool’s scouting team breaks it down by role.

Forwards

For wingers and strikers, an xG per 90 above 0.5 is generally considered elite. Elite forwards in the Premier League have posted numbers around that range over their careers. Darwin Núñez’s xG per 90 has fluctuated, partly because he misses chances but also because he creates them at a high rate. When Liverpool scouts look at a forward, they want to see if the xG comes from inside the box, from through balls, or from headers.

Midfielders

For central midfielders, the bar is lower. An xG per 90 of 0.15 to 0.25 is solid for a box-to-box player. Someone like Alexis Mac Allister contributes both goals and assists, so his xG per 90 might be supplemented by expected assists (xA). Liverpool values midfielders who arrive late in the box, like Jordan Henderson used to, or who shoot from distance, like Steven Gerrard did.

Defenders

Full-backs and centre-backs rarely post high xG per 90, but when they do, it’s a sign of a system that encourages them to get forward. Trent Alexander-Arnold’s xG per 90 as a full-back was always impressive, but now that he’s playing in midfield, his numbers have changed. For defenders, Liverpool looks more at defensive actions and passing metrics.

The Liverpool Transfer Target Profile: What the Numbers Say

Based on historical signings and rumoured targets, Liverpool tends to go for players with an xG per 90 in a certain range for forwards and midfielders. But there are exceptions. When the Reds signed Diogo Jota from Wolves, his xG per 90 was solid but not elite. What stood out was his pressing intensity and ability to score from different angles.

Similarly, when Liverpool was linked with players like Jude Bellingham, his xG per 90 as a midfielder was respectable, but his xA per 90 was even higher. The club values players who contribute to both goals and assists, which is why you see targets like Khéphren Thuram or Gabri Veiga popping up.

To give a rough idea, here’s a general breakdown of what might be considered strong for different positions:

These numbers aren’t absolute—they depend on the league, the team, and the player’s role. But they give you a starting point for evaluating rumours.

The Risks of Relying on xG per 90 Alone

Here’s where we need to pump the brakes. xG per 90 is a useful metric, but it’s not a crystal ball. There are several risks that Liverpool’s recruitment team has to account for.

Sample Size

A player might have a high xG per 90 over 10 games, but that could be a hot streak. Liverpool scouts look at data over at least two seasons to see if the numbers are sustainable. A one-season wonder in a weaker league might flop at Anfield.

League Quality

The Premier League is tougher than most. A player with an xG per 90 of 0.7 in the Eredivisie might see that drop to 0.35 in England. Liverpool adjusts for league difficulty using advanced models, but there’s always a risk.

System Fit

A player who thrives in a counter-attacking system might struggle in Liverpool’s high press. xG per 90 doesn’t measure work rate, pressing intensity, or defensive contributions. That’s why Liverpool also looks at metrics like pressures per 90 and tackles in the final third.

Injury History

A player with great xG numbers but a history of muscle injuries is a gamble. Liverpool has been burned before—players like Naby Keïta had excellent underlying stats but couldn’t stay fit. The club now factors in injury risk when evaluating targets.

How to Use xG per 90 in Your Own Transfer Debates

Next time you’re arguing with a mate about whether Liverpool should sign a certain player, here’s how to use xG per 90 without sounding like a stat nerd.

First, check the player’s xG per 90 over the last two seasons. If it’s consistently above 0.5 for a forward, that’s a good sign. But then ask yourself: what league is he playing in? How does his team play? Does he take penalties? If he scores a lot of penalties, his xG per 90 might be inflated.

Second, look at the type of chances he gets. Is he scoring from inside the six-yard box, or is he shooting from distance? Liverpool prefers players who get into dangerous areas and create high-quality chances.

Finally, combine xG per 90 with other metrics. Expected assists (xA) per 90 shows how well he creates for others. Shots on target percentage tells you if he’s clinical. Pressures per 90 shows his work rate. No single number tells the whole story.

For a deeper dive into how Liverpool compares players using these metrics, check out our guide on player comparison using xG and xA. And if you want to understand how the club allocates its transfer budget based on these numbers, read our transfer budget analysis.

Final Thoughts: xG per 90 Is a Tool, Not a Verdict

Liverpool’s recruitment team uses xG per 90 as one piece of a much larger puzzle. It’s a great starting point for identifying players who get into scoring positions, but it doesn’t tell you if they can handle the pressure at Anfield, adapt to Klopp’s tactics, or stay fit for a full season.

As fans, we love to get excited about a flashy stat. But remember: the best signings are the ones where the numbers, the eye test, and the character all align. So next time you see a rumour with a high xG per 90, don’t just get hyped—dig deeper. Ask yourself whether that player fits the Liverpool way.

And if you want to keep up with all the transfer talk and scouting insights, head over to our transfer analytics hub for more breakdowns like this.